Drake, Fermi, and aliens

[Falconer]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

An equation by Dr. Drake that suggests that numerous sentient alien races should exist relatively (on a universe scale) close to us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Fermi's reply, e.g. that while it is probable that numerous sentient alien races capable of interstellar travel SHOULD exist, such a situation would almost certainly have resulted in extraterrestrial visitation/colonization of Earth, or at the very least observable evidence in the stars of such an interstellar empire.

So here's my idea for a sci-fi plot: by roughly seventeen million years ago Earth, along with a number of other worlds, was one of the last remaining uncolonized systems in our corner of the universe and, as such, was set aside as a sort of natural preserve, with extensive cloaking filters set in place to prevent any outside signals or travellers from entering the preserve, with only a handful of rare incidents. By about 3 Million BC intergalactic warfare reduced most of the current civilizations to shadows of their former selves, and monitoring of the self-sustaining Planetary Nature Preserve ended. No expectation was held that any intelligent life would ever form in the preserve; however, in the year 2552 A.D. the first human-made intergalactic spacecraft unknowingly breaches the containment field and discovers a universe of conflict that is entirely unprepared for the introduction of a new player in the politics of space:
Earth.

[Corva]

Isn't that a standard SciFi plot?

The most interesting treatments in SciFi I've seen of it (that contain aliens) are Orions Arm (aliens, but humans are the first in our area to gain interstellar travel - with the possible exception of extinct/transcended species - because the others don't live on worlds where technology or spaceflight are easy) and Mass Effect (there are aliens, but the Precursors harvest them every so often to allow room for more). Though my personal view is that there are no aliens, at least not in our galaxy - we are the Precursors.

[alondor]

The problem is that there is no such thing as an original idea anymore, everything has been done at least once.

Falconer I would play in the campaign if that is what you are suggesting. I think it would also be fun if each participant created a race for the GM to control, put less stress that way.

[Falconer]

As far as Earth being a nature preserve, I've never seen any works of fiction that use that as a mechanic.

And alondor, I was mostly considering this as an idea for a novel. I'd love to see it as an RP but I don't think the board has enough regular activity to support it.

[Corva]

Of course, the issue with that scenario is that 3 million years ago something very interesting began to happen on Terra with the development of Australopithecus. I would expect a bipedal ape with opposable thumbs that's showing signs of evolving into an intelligent species very soon (Homo erectus happened less than a million years later) to get attention...

Of course, you just need to move the date for the war back another few million years to get around that.

[asdf]

Yeah, also never saw the nature preserve idea. Although I did catch th South Park episode where they figured out that it was a reality tv show. Also the year seems familiar, probably been hanging around halo fans too much. Does sound interesting though.

[Falconer]

I did pull the 2552 date from Halo, it just sounds like a cool year.

So say 15M B.C., then, if I recall correctly we were still solidly at the monkey stage then.

[asdf]

A very cool year indeed, all but, like, two of the games happened that year. Not to mention a ton of non-game stuff.

[Corva]

So... Earth, plus the systems for a few hundred light years around, are contained in the preserve?

[Falconer]

More, was thinking the whole Local Cluster. The power requirements would be enormous, but it would be way cooler for fictional purposes.

[alondor]

I could be wrong, but haven't the space probes we've sent out penetrated that range how would you explain that?

[Corva]

The entire local cluster..? So not even just the Milky Way, but Andromeda too? Though that doesn't make sense if you're talking about the first intergalactic spacecraft. In fact, that doesn't make sense anyway, since you're talking about Earth being one of the few uncolonised places left - rather than one out of a trillion or so. Just how many aliens are you talking about? Humanity wouldn't even be a minnow in an ocean... also, you probably wouldn't need a shield, since the nearest civilisations would be over a dozen million light years away, and it takes a very, very big telescope to pick up signals over that distance.

Making the Orion's arm into a preserve, perhaps. Or a sphere 1000 light years in radius around Terra. Or shift the dates down, more Mass Effect time than Halo. Section off the solar system, until it's broken in the early 22nd century by humanities first - or first successful - probe.

[Falconer]

I was thinking less on a galactic scale, and more on a universe one. Conceivably there could be any number of as-yet unknown issues with potential habitable worlds; Earth may be more unique than we think. I could be wrong; has any scientific organization released an estimate lately on how many habitable worlds are in the Orion Arm?

In any case, it means we could have colonized Andromeda by then; this would be kind of big for the plot, as it means that by the time we made first contact we would already have a fledgling intergalactic empire set up.

[Corva]

With trillions of worlds under our dominion? What population are you thinking of? Of what toposophic level? You're talking about a Type IV civilisation. A moderate Type 3 is hard enough as it is to imagine as one cohesive unit, and contains within itself as much potential for storytelling as is needed.

Just *how* fast are you thinking of these ships moving? Instantaneously?

[Falconer]

Well, for any kind of civilization spanning galaxies, I'd imagine wormhole travel to be the only way to instantly move from planet to planet. And this being fiction, we don't have to assume that every world that technically meets the "habitable world" criteria would actually end up being viable. Even the ones that are need not be actually settled, possibly just claimed and subsequently abandoned for various reasons.

[Dragon444]

The idea is grand, but SETI has discovered a long string of exoplanets and has even factored which are the right size and distance from their stars. All via the Kepler program.
We may be alone here as in Asimov's Foundation series, or we may not. IF not, then that begs the question of why can't we see any signs of ETIs (Extra-Terrestrial Intelligences)? Do we just not have the tech yet? Or are we just not looking in the right places? Yes, we found th so called 'Wow!' signal, but that's it. Unless we go with the 'Ancient Aliens' theory that most find rediculous.

[Falconer]

OMG A POST!

[Corva]

If a post can happen here, why not aliens elsewhere?

Re. Ancient Aliens, I've heard the History Channel do some good documentries on them.

[Falconer]

Question: does the History channel do shows on history anymore?

[alondor]

Question: does the History channel do shows on history anymore?

Answer: No

[Corva]

It is Falconer's fault, not mine.

[Falconer]

[asdf]

I remember my history teacher used to believe in that ancient aliens crap. Then someone showed him the debunking videos and he got all weird for about a week. I think he might have had some scientology mixed in too, i honestly have no idea why they would hire someone like that as a HISTORY teacher. Other than being cheap and needing to fill up the new expansion to the school.

[Corva]

Well, there were aliens, but we kicked them out 5000 years ago and buried the device they used to travel between planets somewhere in Egypt.

[Falconer]

I believe, good sir, you just won the thread. Here is your cookie.